NFL Week 6 Picks: Time to trust the Jaguars and all of Will Brinson's best bets

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Probably should have stayed in the crevasse last week, as my Week 5 picks went a “meh” 2-3 on my best bets. Hopefully you’re fading my SuperContest selections, since I’m clearly the big LOOOOOSER on Team OddsShark when it comes to repping the CBS Sports fam. Pete Prisco claims he’s getting hot and Nick Kostos is convinced he’s on the verge of a 5-0 streak. You can hear them talk about it, with me and Jason La Canfora on the Pick Six Podcast presented by CBS Sports, which comes out three times a week and features tons of snark and picks against the spread on Friday. 

Anyway, I tried to end up going with a bunch of dogs this week and it backfired again. I had something like 12 of 14 dogs for my full list of picks against the spread and then ended up taking three of the four favorites I backed in those games. Whatever. Let’s get to it and find some winners.

You can check out all all my Week 6 NFL picks right here, all of our Week 6 NFL Expert Picks here and yell at me for my terrible picks on Twitter @WillBrinson


New Orleans Saints
-5 vs.
Detroit Lions

This line is not up on a lot of sites where one might do some hypothetical wagering, as of this writing. That’s mainly because of
Matthew Stafford
, whose status is still up in the air for the matchup in New Orleans. The only thing that scares me here is Detroit’s annoying propensity to keep things close, even in blowout games. See: last week, when they managed to lose by three points to Carolina after trailing 27-10. If they do that here, it will be very annoying, but I think they will face similar circumstances in terms of being down. New Orleans is playing well on offense and had a bye to dump
Adrian Peterson
, which should make the offense flow even smoother.
Haloti Ngata
is out for the Lions, reducing pressure on
Drew Brees
. The defense has quietly been good, shutting down the
Miami Dolphins
(yawn) and
Carolina Panthers
(hmm) in the two weeks before the bye. The Saints know they need this game to keep pace with the rest of the NFC South and they roll big.


Baltimore Ravens
-6.5 vs.
Chicago Bears

One leg of the Kiss of Death Parlay, I am petrified that the Ravens will be the top consensus choice in the SuperContest. They opened at a touchdown favorite and despite everyone loading on Baltimore, the line is moving towards the Bears. Maybe the Bears can completely shut down the Ravens offense (very possible) and do just enough (fake punts and the like, a la Monday) to keep it close and stun the Ravens. It’s totally possible. It’s the NFL. Anything is, in theory, possible. But you look at this game and you see the defense for the Ravens, which features a lot of talent on the back end at safety. It would be preferable if
Brandon Williams
and
Jimmy Smith
played for the bet, but Dean Pees and this defense should still be able to take care of business against a rookie quarterback in
Mitchell Trubisky
 who is making his first start on the road in an extremely hostile environment. The Ravens, by the by, might be playing for first place in the division with a win here. 


Jacksonville Jaguars
-2.5 vs.
Los Angeles Rams

This may the be panic point for the weekly picks, where I realize I have the most popular favorite of the week AND I’m taking the Jaguars. GULP. The Rams are a good team and played the
Seattle Seahawks
well; they win that game if they convert in the red zone. The Jaguars are a roller coaster ride and this would be the spot where they trip up after beating the
Pittsburgh Steelers
on the road. However, when I started walking through the game in my head, it’s just not hard to imagine a situation where the Jaguars get a 7-0 lead, stuff the box and force
Jared Goff
to beat them throwing. He’s a good young quarterback but this is a really good secondary that can create some turnovers. The Rams defense is strong but their rushing defense is not great;
Leonard Fournette
should have another big day. He is wearing teams down and then ripping off big runs. The Jags turn the corner on Sunday. 

Steelers +4.5 at
Kansas City Chiefs

This is the opposite of the above game, me taking a team that is reeling after losing at home to the Jaguars and having everyone and their brother question whether or not
Ben Roethlisberger
wants to play football. What’s that? Oh right, it was actually Ben Roethlisberger who questioned whether or not he wanted to play football and then promptly waiting a few days to question the media about questioning him for questioning whether he wanted to play. Roethlisberger might be on the decline, but he isn’t getting any help from his teammates or the system. This is a bounceback game for Pittsburgh in a tough spot — they have played the Chiefs well the last two games, everyone is going to be backing Kansas City and the Steelers are still a very talented team getting more than a field goal. 


Los Angeles Chargers
+3.5 at
Oakland Raiders


Derek Carr
is returning for the Raiders, which is obviously a pretty big bump for Oakland as opposed to
EJ Manuel
. But the Raiders are still going to need to take it easy with the quarterback as he recovers from a back injury. The weather — with the smoke out in California — is going to be a concern but that plays out for both teams. The Raiders defense couldn’t slow down the Ravens last week (
Joe Flacco
was fine as was
Javorius Allen
, which is not what you expect from Baltimore) and they shouldn’t be able to slow down the Chargers.
Philip Rivers
and Co. labored through a victory against the
New York Giants
and started to get a little mojo turning their way, and they should be thrilled about playing somewhere other than the StubHub Center. There won’t be quite as many Raiders fans to deal with in this particular game. 

  • Last week best bets: 2-3
  • Best bets season: 9-16
  • Last week overall: 7-6-1
  • Season overall: 38-38-1



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